The Week in Data, Nov 2 to 8: AI Repricing Sinks Bitcoin to $74,738 as Fed Hike Odds Hit 77%

Tuesday's US midterms handed Democrats both chambers of Congress. Markets spent Wednesday celebrating, then spent Thursday deciding that a Democratic Congress means a slower, costlier AI buildout. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst session since March 2020, a gauge of US semiconductor stocks fell 12 percent, and everything with a beta followed.

Bitcoin closed the week at $74,737.90, down 4.48 percent, after a 10.53 percent round trip from Wednesday's high to Sunday's low. Then Friday's October jobs report came in at 165,000 against roughly 65,000 expected, and the Fed conversation flipped from "pause" to "hike". Polymarket now prices a quarter point increase in December at 77.5 cents.

Markets

Kraken daily candles for the Monday to Sunday window, all figures in USD on UTC day boundaries:

Asset	Week open	Week close	High	Low	Change
BTC	78,239.20	74,737.90	81,179.60	73,444.30	-4.48%
ETH	2,272.34	2,124.05	2,447.27	2,071.00	-6.53%
SOL	94.40	86.44	98.01	85.00	-8.43%

The weekly percentages hide a violent two day reversal. Wednesday November 4, the day the midterm result landed, was the best session of the week: BTC up 4.02 percent, ETH up 6.68 percent, SPY up 1.65 percent. Thursday gave all of it back and more: BTC down 5.55 percent, ETH 7.76 percent, SPY 4.41 percent, QQQ 6.49 percent.

Reporting tied the move to the midterm outcome rather than to any single earnings miss: chip and technology names led the selling as investors weighed what Democratic control of Congress means for data center buildouts. CNN put the day's lost market value at roughly $2.5 trillion, and the S&P 500's 4.4 percent drop was its worst since April 2025.

Friday to Friday, SPY went from 755.72 to 735.29, down 2.70 percent, and QQQ from 690.49 to 656.10, down 4.98 percent. At the time of writing SPY trades at 749.20 and QQQ at 674.66, up 1.89 and 2.83 percent on the Monday session, with Broadcom up 7.55 percent and Nvidia down 4.11 percent.

The Fear and Greed Index had the odd week. It opened Monday at 37 (Fear), printed its weekly high of 50 (Neutral) on Thursday, the day equities broke, then slid to 25 (Extreme Fear) on Saturday before finishing Sunday at 28. The index runs on crypto inputs, and crypto's worst day came after equities'. It reads 29 at the time of writing.

Rates went the other way. Against the prior Friday, the 2 year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.51 percent, the 10 year fell 8 to 4.86 percent and the 30 year fell 5 to 5.26 percent, flattening the 2s10s spread from 38 to 35 basis points. Those closes understate Thursday's flight to quality: the 10 year printed 4.84 percent before bouncing on Friday's payroll number.

Spot bitcoin ETFs were the flow story. US funds shed about $1.28 billion over November 2 to 6, the heaviest week since late June, pushing 2026 net flows from roughly positive $368 million to negative $914 million. BlackRock's IBIT was about $1.21 billion of that, or 94 percent, per SoSoValue data. Liquidations topped $1 billion as bitcoin broke $75,000 for the first time since August.

Positioning

Hyperliquid open interest stands at $9.50 billion across 179 markets at the time of writing, down 5.18 percent over 24 hours. The feed holds only about 26 hours of history, so no weekly comparison is possible.

Inside that total, the split is instructive. BTC is the largest book at $3.22 billion, or 42,821 BTC, and its open interest is up 2.48 percent on the day even though the mark fell 1.11 percent: traders added to bitcoin into weakness. Everything else got flushed: ETH open interest is down 16.11 percent to $1.77 billion (830,200 ETH), SOL down 11.62 percent, Zcash down 11.68 percent and XRP down 25.48 percent. HYPE, the second largest book at $1.68 billion, barely moved.

The ETH/BTC ratio closed at 0.028420 against 0.029044 the prior Sunday, down 2.15 percent. Ether did not merely fall with bitcoin, it fell harder, and Sunday did most of the damage: down 5.04 percent against bitcoin's 1.34 percent.

Prediction markets

Polymarket's macro board repriced hard after Friday's payroll print. Prices and one week changes in percentage points, at the time of writing:

Fed raises by 25 bps in December: 77.5 cents, up 7 points, on $2.66 million of weekly volume.
No change in December: 20.5 cents, down 5 points.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026: 79.5 cents, up 7 points.
Bitcoin dips to $72,500 in November: 65.5 cents, up 9 points.
Bitcoin dips to $70,000 by December 31: 57.5 cents, up 10 points.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31: 45.5 cents, up 12 points, on $1.21 million.

That 77.5 cents sits almost exactly where CME FedWatch closed on Friday, at 76.8 percent, and Reuters reported traders also pulling the expected final hike forward to April from June. More on reading these prices in the prediction market glossary.

The planet

USGS counted 84 earthquakes at magnitude 4.5 or above inside the window, down sharply from 146 the prior week. Five reached M5.5 and two reached M6.1:

M6.1, Fiji region, Thursday November 5 at 17:21 UTC, 535 km deep.
M6.1, 144 km SE of Hasaki, Japan, Friday November 6 at 10:39 UTC, 29 km deep.

Both carried green PAGER alerts and neither set a tsunami flag. The GDACS full feed rejected our requests this run, so the disaster read comes from TerminalFeed's trimmed top ten, where every live alert is Green. Two tropical cyclones formed inside the window and are still tracked: PENA-26 in the central Pacific and CEMPAKA-26 near Japan, both from Friday November 6. No Orange or Red alert appeared. There is again no volcano reporting for this window: the Smithsonian and USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's latest edition still covers October 8 to 14.

Space

Seven orbital launches flew, all successful, four of them Chinese.

Monday November 2: Rocket Lab Electron, The Sea God Surveys (iQPS Launch 9), Mahia.
Tuesday November 3: CAS Space Kinetica 2, SpaceSail Polar Group 17, Jiuquan.
Thursday November 5: CASC Long March 2C, Yaogan 51-07 to 09, Xichang.
Friday November 6: Galactic Energy Ceres-2, four satellites, Jiuquan.
Saturday November 7: SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5, USSF-432, Vandenberg SFB.
Saturday November 7: Russian Space Forces Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat-M, Glonass-K1 (Kosmos 2621), Plesetsk.
Sunday November 8: CASC Long March 12, SatNet LEO Group 29, Wenchang.

Notable by its absence: not one Starlink mission flew. The last was Starlink Group 15-18 on October 31.

The internet

A bad week for the plumbing developers depend on. Cloudflare opened 20 incidents inside the window, 18 rated minor, six of them on Tuesday alone. The developer platform took most of it: Workers Builds, Pages, Wrangler, Durable Objects, R2 and Containers all had their own entries.

GitHub logged 10 incidents, three of them rated major, and all three fell on Wednesday November 4: Pull Requests, Git Operations and Issues from 09:49 to 11:50 UTC, then Actions and Pages, then Actions again. OpenAI posted five incidents, four minor, including elevated error rates across paid ChatGPT plans late on November 4. Anthropic posted one, a 26 minute degradation of Claude Fable 5.1 on Sunday.

At the time of writing Cloudflare's status board reads "Partial System Outage" at the page level while its only open incident is a minor one, delayed cache purges for FedRAMP customers, identified November 6. TerminalFeed's own feeds are healthy: 118 checked, 115 live, two idle, one stalled.

The week ahead

Tuesday November 10: October CPI, 8:30 a.m. ET per the BLS schedule, the last inflation print before the December 8 to 9 FOMC meeting.
Tuesday November 10: SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5, USSF-627, listed as Go.
Friday November 13: ULA Vulcan VC6L carrying Amazon Leo LV-01, listed as Go.
Friday November 13: SpaceX Starship Flight 15 with Starlink Group 31-2, still marked to be confirmed.
Saturday November 14: Rocket Lab Electron, The Mountain God Rises (iQPS Launch 10), listed as Go.
Sunday November 15: two high volume Polymarket geopolitical markets resolve, on whether the Israel and Iran ceasefire holds (93.5 cents, up 26.5 points) and whether the US announces an end to the Iranian blockade (5.6 cents, down 12 points).

The open question is simple. Thursday repriced the AI buildout, Friday repriced the Fed, both in the same direction for risk assets. Tuesday's CPI is the first chance to test whether the second one was right.